view in app. jump to content. It is therefore very similar to the relationship between the masses and the elites in HK. There is zero possibility you could bribe the Chinese population (sans merchants) with material benefits to become indifferent to their nation's territorial integrity. I personally think this is the direction it will head because Taiwan would be of much more benefit to the PRC in the long run as a sovereign country, namely because of the potential for further economic integration, as OP already discussed. To declare that we would go to war would encourage risk-taking by Taipei. I take them! Because these issues are sacred to them. When your annual war games meant to simulate a limited conventional war starts off with the OPFOR lobbing nukes as an opening move, I don't think it's inaccurate to say that the PLA has an entirely different definition for 'limited war'. “Reconquest” of Spratly Islands (Year 2025 to 2030) After unification of Taiwan, China will take a … It was for Russia with respect to Crimea. KMT has significant support in military and law enforcement as well as among the business elites. While I think that the status quo of Taiwan "being an independent country but actually not" won't last forever, I don't think it'll end with a war. KMT wants reunification with a stake in China. Even if they held off the carriers they'd still have to deal with our submarine fleet. Opinion Opinion: Will Joe Biden go to war with China for Taiwan? In the high echelons of government and defense planning, obviously having an accurate take of each side's proper political and military resolve is vitally important, but for us in the public we can scale it up and down for the sake of productive discussion. Over the nearly fifty years since the Nixon administration first embraced the notion of “one-China,” it served as the essential underpinning of Sino-American peace and the absence of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait. China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020. Welcome to LessCredibleDefence - the home of links which have failed to pass the quality requirement of [r/CredibleDefense] There they are supported by a newly constructed $250 million quasi-embassy guarded by U.S. marines. - Gen. Smedley Butler This is a community that should discuss American policies and actions that promote what the Pentagon calls the "long war". Why are Chinese sending a plane after plane to almost violate the airspace? China has clearly stated that it will fire upon other nations' vessels in the disputed waters. I would just like to point out that the definition of “one China” given in the article is wrong. However, I don't see the same scrutiny being applied to the position of the PRC and the CCP. Join. These are my toys. It's amazing that people think that the planners in Beijing are amateurs. Also, no matter what, I don't think that the US can let Taiwan fall to the PRC, because to do so would entail a massive growth in China's sphere of influence in the Pacific region, while potentially also serving as a launching ground for invasion of other states and holdings like Guam/Hawaii. China can take Kinmen, Matsu and Wuciou islands in the Strait, the Pratas island to the south and Taiping island in the Spratlys. edit subscriptions. level 2. We won't be able to stop them and we'll all be reading Simplified in a week!". Why has China taken so seriously disputes over basically worthless territory in places like Aksai Chin, Spratly Islands, Zhengbao Island, Diaoyu Islands and a few others? Reddit. For the purposes of us in the public discussing a hypothetical Taiwan contingency, articulating the scale of US commitment and resolve wrt Taiwan is often the area of debate. In fact, even if we do nothing in a Chinese invasion, Japan is guaranteed to intervene. I would fight, but I'm too old and morbidly obese, so I can't. They pertain to the values instilled into every Chinese that doesn't grow up to be a merchant. Further, the current generation of mainland Chinese has been hearing propaganda of "we'll retake Taiwan soon!" As a Taiwanese-American living in Taiwan, I do not get any sense of "entitlement" to "American blood" from my friends and family. So I will cry very loudly and tell on you to my mom. This was certainly true during Mao's tenure after the CCP had fought both an invading imperialist power and a devastating civil war, but I don't think the same can be said now. It's all emotional, there is nothing directly rational about the PRC leadership and population's position on Taiwan. In that instance I do agree that China will go all in with whatever they have. this will definitely have a good outcome. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe. Cookies help us deliver our Services. Taiwan rushes to react turning a false flag into a real flag and China declares itself a target of aggression. there are already a significant number of old KMT cold warriors who hate the DPP and dont see a reason to be anti-prc anymore. Cyber attacks will cut out the communications with the island and the narrative will be one staged by whatever Beijing will let slip. Did you think Americans were the only people with unshakeable, unconditional founding principles that underpin their entire society and national mythos? Third, the mainland’s ability to coerce Taiwan was long limited by its own military incapacities, a convincing American deterrent capability, and Taiwan’s readiness to mount effective resistance to invasion and occupation. More posts from the LessCredibleDefence community, Continue browsing in r/LessCredibleDefence. Whatever appeal association with the rest of China might once have had has progressively evaporated as the mainland has become an ever-more abusive police state. As for individuals in the thread who question whether China would be willing to go to war over Taiwan or to do a Taiwan invasion proper, those who don't believe it likely won't have their minds changed here. You think a nuclear apocalypse is somehow good for the USA? There are a couple of other smaller ones, but those are the most significant ones. If U.S. recovery of Taiwan were successful, the mainland would just bide its time, rebuild its strength, and try again. The US would have already mustered such a force because a PRC buildup for an amphibious invasion would be very obvious well in advance of the actual invasion. The article writes about “One China” as if it’s the US agreeing to ignore Taiwan and only interact with China, but it’s actually just an agreement between Taiwan and China that allows for them to “agree to disagree” that there is only one China. Kevin Rudd has warned that the risk of a “hot war” between China and the United States that includes actual armed conflict is now “especially high” for the first time since the 1950s. On the other hand, hypothetically if OP's conditions were somehow magically achieved by China tomorrow, that doesn't mean China would immediately invade Taiwan. China can prepare an OPFOR unit that in secret will be staged as a false flag to show Taiwan attacking demonstrators in Kinmen. To grasp the ramifications of such moves, some background on the former PACOM might be useful. WarWithChina r/ WarWithChina. They might risk their business partners and their employees even but they won't risk their precious money. And giving up taiwan pretty much means giving up Japan and south Korea since their shipping lanes are not sustainable without a free taiwan. Log In Sign Up. A handful of islands that immediately on cue will repeat the Donbas scenario except with imported "we want return to the motherland" demonstrators? Edit: There's an X-factor here that I rarely see discussed. Edit2: Also, so many people are making a mountain out of a molehill with regard to recent US overtures to Taiwan, comparing this to the PLA counter-offensive in Korea when the latter involved a massive US military force barreling toward the border of a newly independent PRC. When it's economy is dominant enough to draw in traditional US allies in the region--Japan, South Korea, and Philippines--into China's orbit and influence. It will look like Crimea and the Falklands. So, they have convinced themselves that the United States can be relied upon to intervene to defend their defiance of “One China” or help them formalize its de facto partition. It's why China is so eagerly expanding trade agreements with countries in the region. Founding Chairman of Quilliam Maajid Nawaz believes “China is preparing for war” as tensions between Beijing and the west increase due to a proposed investigation into the origins of COVID-19. This is based on if this was a conventional war ONLY. WhatsApp The Cold War was a struggle process between the two major world powers: the United States backed by Western nations and the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc, including China, Vietnam and Eastern European countries. The PRC obviously operates under the assumption the US will devote stupendous amounts of lives and treasure to a Taiwan conflict. Haven't you learned anything from the Ukrainian crisis??? I'm still not convinced China would go to war against Taiwan. Recent studies from the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government in Boston and the Center for a New American Security in Washington suggest India maintains an … Cracks are opening in China-Russia ties, from Vladivostok to arms sales to India and – most explosive of all – New Delhi’s suggestion that Moscow join the US-led Indo-Pacific grouping. I think it's less that, and more "if Taiwan crosses our red lines, we'll have to go to war". Why is Taiwan attacking peaceful demonstrators? for all their lives and has seen nothing come of it. r/China: A community for discussing China and topics related to it. User account menu. And very often their attempts fail. I'm not sure how you've missed these changes. yes let's have a war with a nuclear power under an authoritarian government. A cold war is all we need. The balance of power and geographic constraints means a war … Absolutely no one in the PRC cares about Taiwan materialistically except the mercantilist class but no one listens to merchants. The answer is yes, it will be over before the Carrier Strike Force gets west of Hawaii. And Trump is a military genius. ... help Reddit App Reddit coins Reddit premium Reddit gifts. The idea of reunification is certainly seen as sacred, but given everyone knows that such a contingency would involve a high possibility of US intervention, it's not like the prospect of war is something that is actively and enthusiastically desired or anticipated, rather than a deadly prospect but which must still be undertaken due to a sense of historical justice. ... Admiral warns of possibility of nuclear war with Russia and China. Reddit gives you the best of the internet in one place. Girding for War with China. The relationship between the United States and China will be a central issue for Joe Biden's presidency, Alexander Görlach writes. This is kindergarten strategy. All of those are Taiwanese territory. The mainland has presented them with no vision of a joint future they might find attractive. These conditions being met is what will initiate re-unification whether with force or not. Any threat to Taiwan will cause the export-dependent economy to crash and burn. There's an X-factor here that I rarely see discussed. I don't believe this will be the case. Furthermore, the PRC had just finished up the Chinese Civil War and was facing a decidedly more anti-Communist United States that had virtually no economic or social connection to the PRC whatsoever. While the U.S. might create the conditions for war, Russia or China would pull the trigger. Many Taiwanese, about 2 million, live in China and many migrate there because of better economic opportunities as compared to their homeland. This bring me onto my next point which is a reignition of the Chinese Civil War will not be a limited war. How did that war start and end before people realized it was a war? Like the protesters in Hong Kong, partisans of independence in Taiwan imagine that foreign sympathy and alignment with their cause will guarantee intervention to help them realize it, despite passionate opposition from the mainland. Sounds like a nice idea to start a World war III. Conversation relating to changes to US policy is more common from your perspective because, one, you read English which means any analyses on the other side of the language barrier are basically inaccessible to you and, two, the US policy has far more room to change than the PRC policy since the Taiwan question has limited implications for the American national ethos and mythos. Is this how you imagine a world power to conduct its business? Instead, they will likely be declaring a resumption of the Chinese Civil War with what they have as fast as practically possible. This belief enables them both to keep defense spending low and to shift the risks of provoking a bloody rendezvous with Chinese nationalism onto the United States. OP's two conditions are not unreasonable, but I think he is coming at the angle wrong. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. *Propaganda But, beginning in 1995, escalating assertions of an identity separate from China by Taiwan’s leaders and sympathetic endorsement of such aspirations by American politicians kicked off a major program of modernization by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aimed at being able to conquer the island over American military opposition. It's been 70 years since the US approached one of the CCP's "red lines". Would they really be willing to take probably tens of thousands of casualties, if not more, to take over the island? If China's red lines wrt Taiwan are crossed, the two conditions that OP described wouldn't be relevant, because it's not like China is going to wait for those two conditions to be met before carrying out military action. It's purely ownership for the sake of ownership. But I think it very much is an exceptional to believe that the Chinese govt -- with all of the open declared geopolitical intent and repeated statements over Taiwan they've made through the decades, and the scale and intensity of their military advancement and procurement in this time -- is not decidedly serious about Taiwan as a geopolitical interest and arguably the single biggest and most active geopolitical interest it has. There seems to be a lot of chatter about war involving China, Taiwan, and obviously US. And to gain what? Taiwan has reemerged as a major purchaser of U.S. weaponry. By using our Services or clicking I agree, you agree to our use of cookies. For instance, the claim that the CCP does not think a "limited war" is possible. So in a sense Taiwan's future is tied to performance of the US economy. This will be a bit rambly. I always wonder why they never took action to either outright overthrow the CCP or secure Taiwan's future with nuclear weapons like what Israel did. Removing ambiguity from the U.S. commitment would just encourage them to push the envelope even more than they already have. Fine. *Historical events Although it was a regional conflict which occurred on the Indochinese Peninsula, it also affected the strategic interests of the People's Republic of China, the United States and the Soviet Union as well as the relations between these great powers. If the CCP and the KMT can figure out a way to rhetorically disentangle the narratives of their respective sovereignties from the concept of a unified China, then there would be a vastly smaller chance of conflict. (Recommended: A Nuclear Nightmare: If China and Japan Went to War) Japan’s fleet of 16 submarines, in the process of being increased to 22, will be the most effective active defense. It seems like a lot of the critiques of the US with regard to Taiwan readily take into account the major changes in the world since the beginning of US support of Taiwan, and yet the decision-making of the CCP is still approached as if it's the 1950s. Each is understandable but rests on increasingly dubious presuppositions. The problem is that China has spent at least the past 20 years, partly informed by observations of how the U.S. conducted the Gulf War in the 1990s, preparing for … There are reports that there are once again American military personnel in Taiwan teaching its armed forces how to conduct operations against the mainland. Without one shot over Taiwan the economy grinds to a halt. view in app. China is rapidly working to develop its own capabilities, going as far as to have 7nm fabs up and running already. Email. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. If events in the South China Sea lead to war, the US can probably … imo they wont have to use violence to reclaim taiwan. By using our Services or clicking I agree, you agree to our use of cookies. Taiwan suddenly finds itself consumed with an internal fight that will be also fanned by Chinese psychological operations and cyber attacks. Because America is so rich it can afford a 3 front war. But it was constantly chipped away at by opponents of Sino-American normalization, advocates of Taiwanese self-determination, American single-issue activists, bureaucratic advocates of less contrived and untidy arrangements, anti-communists, and – more recently – advocates of great power rivalry and confrontation with China. So this is basically the crux of it -- resolve. What's more likely would be the use of massive diplomacy and coordinated political power and theater to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table, rather than starting a conflict off the bat.

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